CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-03-08T04:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-03-08T04:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19377/-1
CME Note: The likely source is an eruption from the vicinity of Active Region 2958. Dimming and opening magnetic field lines as well as an EUV wave are observed in SDO AIA 193 A starting around 2022-03-08T03:24Z, while in SDO 304 A, longitudinal brightening occurs along the active region with ejecta and bright post eruptive loops. UPDATE (2022-03-11T19:55Z): There is a weak magnetic shock at 2022-03-11T10:59Z that may possibly be associated with this CME, but the solar wind density data are inconclusive and the solar wind speed and temperature data do not support a CME arrival, and this may be part of the previous CME arrival signature which began 2022-03-10T18:37Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-03-10T23:02Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-03-08 10:20
 - Time at C2: 2022-03-08 04:24
 - Radial speed: 616.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 34 deg
 - Eruption location: N10W43
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 590.80 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2022-03-10 23:02 (i.e. predicted transit time: 66.63 hours)

Kp:{ 4.0 - 5.0]

Lead Time: 51.03 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2022-03-08T20:00Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy